Has U.S. sided with Shiites?

We heard about "The Salvador Option" shortly before death squads emerged in Iraq. We have heard about the "surge option" which Bush was preordained to choose as the entree for his meal of bloody sacrifice. We heard about the "Darwin option" which would be mean that U.S. forces would stand back and allow Shiites and Sunnis to fight it out - survival of the fitess being the law of George of the Junge. And we heard about the "pick the winning side and back them option".

Inside Iraq, Shiites certainly can dominate the Sunnis, but in the wider Muslim world Sunnis outnumber Shiites by 9 to 1. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to standby while Shiites decimate Sunnis inside Iraq. They are unlikely to intervene directly, but they will arm and finance Sunni militias in any showdown scenario.

My working hypothesis is that Bush and Maliki are playing each other for fools. Bush pretends to "have confidence" that Maliki will crack down on Shiite militias AFTER he cracks down on Sunni militias. Of course Maliki will never get around to the latter. Will Bush let the Shiites (and Iran by proxy) win the battle for Iraq? Not No, but Hell No.

When Maliki refuses to go after Shiites (despite publicized ruses that he is) then Bush will have "no choice" but to engineer the overthrow of Maliki, help put a pro-U.S. "strongman" like Iyad Allawi in power as part of a government of "national salvation", blame Iran for interference in Iraq, and strike Iran.

The first part of that sequence is underway (attacks on Sunni strongholds) and plans are underway for the denouement (strikes on Iran). BTW, there is scant evidence that Iran is suppling advanced weaponry such as tank piercing IEDs to Iraq (see article in yesterday's Los Angeles Times). Bush never lets the evidence get in his way.

Iraqi, US forces battle insurgents in Baghdad Sunni bastion

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AFP 4:40 am EST Wed 24 Jan 2007

A steady barrage of machine-gun fire and mortars was thundering across Baghdad as Iraqi and US forces battled insurgents in one of the capital's Sunni bastions.

Iraqi and US troops with air support from US Apache helicopter gunships fought insurgents in central Baghdad's Haifa Street district in a raging battle that began early in the day.

The US military said Iraqi and US soldiers had launched "Operation Tomahawk Strike 11 on Haifa Street, conducting targeted raids to disrupt illegal militia activity and help restore Iraq security force control in the area".

After a lull that lasted more than an hour, sporadic mortar fire resumed in the area along with occasional automatic weapons fire, as US combat helicopters patrolled overhead.

Iraqi security officials said US aircraft were also reported to have fired on insurgents.

Six "terrorists" and three other suspects were arrested and large caches of weapons seized inside Al-Karkh Middle School, which is located on Haifa Street, a defense ministry source said.

The street lies within two kilometres (just over a mile) of the heavily-fortified Green Zone, the seat of the Iraqi government and US embassy.

A few weeks ago a similar firefight broke out on Haifa Street between Iraqi soldiers and insurgents, and left 50 militants dead. Dozens of insurgents were arrested, including some alleged foreign fighters.

The US choppers also flew over over Al-Fadel, a district on the east side of the Tigris river that is another Sunni stronghold in Baghdad.

On Monday, a Blackwater private security helicopter crashed in Fadel, killing five people, a US defense official said.

US military and private security helicopters circled over the area for several hours as heavy machine-gun fire was heard.

Founded in 1977 by a former US Navy Seal, Blackwater is the most sophisticated private security company operating in Iraq, with its own aircraft and a staff comprised mostly of former American soldiers from elite units.

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U.S. warns Iran to back down

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Posted on Tue, Jan. 23, 2007

JIM KRANE
Associated Press

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - A second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group now steaming toward the Middle East is Washington's way of warning Iran to back down in its attempts to dominate the region, a top U.S. diplomat said here Tuesday.

Nicholas Burns, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, ruled out direct negotiations with Iran and said a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran was "not possible" until Iran halts uranium enrichment.

"The Middle East isn't a region to be dominated by Iran. The Gulf isn't a body of water to be controlled by Iran. That's why we've seen the United States station two carrier battle groups in the region," Burns said in an address to the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center, an influential think-tank.

"Iran is going to have to understand that the United States will protect its interests if Iran seeks to confront us," Burns continued.

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